Reserve Estimation and Risk Analysis


Geoscientists, engineers or managers involved in preparing or utilizing reserve estimates.


The course includes lectures and practical problem solving and covers the bases for estimation and classification of oil and gas reserves at different risk areas. It aims to present a simple yet powerful method for evaluating the geologic (and economic) chance, volume, value and efficiency associated with exploring in different geologic plays. The methodology is applicable for a spectrum of opportunities, from a medium sized concession to a full geologic play.


  • Reserve definitions
  • Uncertainties in reserves estimation
  • Risk analysis in plays and prospects
  • Statistics and risk analysis concepts
  • Frequency distributions
  • Monte Carlo Simulation
  • Play ranking techniques
  • Performance/decline trend analysis
  • Probabilistic methods: example calculations
  • Deterministic vs. probabilistic methods.
  • Special problems: remote/frontier areas, heavy and extra heavy crudes, fractured/vugular reservoirs, tight gas reservoirs
  • Case studies