Reserve Estimation and Risk Analysis
Candidates:
Geoscientists, engineers or managers involved in preparing or utilizing reserve estimates.
Summary:
The course includes lectures and practical problem solving and covers the bases for estimation and classification of oil and gas reserves at different risk areas. It aims to present a simple yet powerful method for evaluating the geologic (and economic) chance, volume, value and efficiency associated with exploring in different geologic plays. The methodology is applicable for a spectrum of opportunities, from a medium sized concession to a full geologic play.
Contents:
- Reserve definitions
- Uncertainties in reserves estimation
- Risk analysis in plays and prospects
- Statistics and risk analysis concepts
- Frequency distributions
- Monte Carlo Simulation
- Play ranking techniques
- Performance/decline trend analysis
- Probabilistic methods: example calculations
- Deterministic vs. probabilistic methods.
- Special problems: remote/frontier areas, heavy and extra heavy crudes, fractured/vugular reservoirs, tight gas reservoirs
- Case studies